By Katherine Gregg
PROVIDENCE, R.I. – Former U.S. Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee appears to have a 7- percentage-point lead in the race for governor and someone new to worry about heading toward the finish. And it is not state Treasurer and Democratic nominee Frank T. Caprio — the one-time frontrunner, according to the latest poll that retired Rhode Island College Prof. Victor Profughi conducted for WJAR-Channel 10.
Caprio is now in third place behind Republican newcomer John Robitaille, according to the new Channel 10 poll.
Chafee, running for governor as an Independent, is leading with 35 percent of the potential vote, while Robitaille has 28 percent, Caprio 25 percent, and Moderate Party founder and candidate Kenneth J. Block 2 percent, with 10 percent undecided.
With a 4.28-percent plus or minus margin of error, Robitaille and Caprio are actually in a statistical tie for second place. (The numbers include those “leaning,” though not yet committed to a candidate, according to a Channel 10 advisory.)
The survey of 523 potential voters was conducted over a three-day period that began last Saturday, and then extended into Monday and Tuesday of this week. On the second and third day, it captured reaction to Caprio telling a radio talk-show host on Monday that President Obama could take his withheld endorsement and “really shove it.”
When asked if the “shove it” comment made them more or less likely to vote for Caprio, 7 percent said more likely; 36 percent said less likely, and 57 percent said it “made no difference.”
A Profughi poll in September showed Caprio leading Chafee 36 to 24 percent. The last poll that Profughi’s Quest Research did for Channel 10 in early October had Caprio leading Chafee, 37 to 33 percent, but close enough to be considered a statistical tie, with Robitaille at 22 percent and Block with the same 2 percent.
A second television station — WPRI-Channel 12 — is expected to release it own poll findings over the next two days.
While every pollster has their own methodology, the Channel 10 poll seems to reaffirm the finding by Rasmussen Reports in an automated survey of 750 likely Rhode Island voters on October 21: that Caprio was losing ground even before his “shove it” remark on Monday after learning President Obama would not make any endorsement in the Rhode Island governor’s race — out of respect for his friend and former U.S. Senate colleague Chafee — while he was in the state that day raising money for congressional Democrats.
After running neck-and-neck with Caprio for months, the week-old Rasmussen poll showed Chafee ahead with a 7-percentage-point lead over Caprio who, by then, was already wrestling with Robitaille for second-place.
Robitaille, who has never before held an elected office, was Republican Governor Carcieri’s communications director until he launched his campaign last winter.
Responding to the new poll results, the Caprio camp re-issued this oft-heard statement: “We have always known this is a competitive race. Frank is going to fight for every vote and he will be governor who will wake up everyday and fight for Rhode Island families and small businesses.”
A spokesman for Robitaille hailed the results as evidence that “Robitaille’s message of cutting spending, lowering taxes and creating a business friendly environment is resonating ” with voters who “are not buying Frank Caprio’s conservative act after his liberal legislative record of raising taxes.”
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